Alignment Research Center (ARC) and AIcrowd · Online · online
ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026
Register on official page ↗ Phase 2 is open now; registration and team changes close September 5, 2026, and final submissions close September 19, 2026 at 23:59 UTC. field still forming
Why it's flagged 🔥
• $100K cash with below-median registration
Decision — what to do today
SKIP
unscoreable
Prize normalization
| Finish-feasibility at deadline | 100% (14d+) |
| P(any payout) if competitive entry | — (assumes 6-12 slots) |
| Heuristic cash EV | — |
| Build model | P80 34h effective after 15% reuse (raw 40h) |
| Strategic fit (agent reliability) | 52% |
| Opportunity cost of entering | $850 (34h x $25/h shadow rate) |
| Latest safe start | 2026-09-08 |
Field estimation
| Headline advertised | $100,000 |
| Cash (verified) | $100,000 |
| Credits (compute/API) | — |
| Normalized value | $100,000 |
Score breakdown v0.1
Not scored — eligibility gate failed.
| Registered | 0 |
| Submission prior | 5% |
| Est. serious field | still forming |
| Days left | 22 |